Reassuring signals?
Daily update
Daily update
- China’s industrial profits grew in December, with profit margins seemingly more or less stable. This has a bearing beyond China’s borders because if China were “dumping” products by exporting below cost, profitability would suffer. Dumping might still happen in certain sectors, but the official data does not support it happening generally.
- The German ifo business sentiment poll is due—and of course is subject to the risks that come from political bias and low response rates. However, it will be interesting to see if the prospect of an election is having any bearing on sentiment.
- There are sentiment polls from the US—the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey comments section, as always, gives insight into how biased supposedly objective survey responses can be. New home sales data is also due—housing is becoming a politically important area in many economies.
- Markets may get some positive signals from US immigration and trade tax policies. So far, US President Trump’s migration policies do not appear to be deporting significantly increased numbers of people (although the publicity, which has increased, may have some economic consequences). The speed with which trade tariff threats against Colombian imports were withdrawn over the weekend also suggests that some tax threats are deal focused.
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