Daily update
Daily update
- The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due. Investors’ concerns are less about the current state of play of the US economy (reasonable growth and slowing inflation) and more about where politics will take the economy next. This has added uncertainty about the 2025 policy path, and gives the minutes more importance than is perhaps normal at this stage of the cycle.
- US November consumer credit data is scheduled. This is a volatile series with a wide range of forecasts making up the consensus, but consumer credit has become more of an investor focus. S&P credit card data still shows benign credit statistics, and rising real incomes reduce the dependency on borrowing.
- Germany November retail sales and factory orders data are due. Retail sales will very likely underestimate the strength of the consumer—the data was revised stronger for ten of the past twelve releases.
- US President-elect Trump gave a press conference offering an eclectic range of statements. The challenge for economists and investors is working out what statements should be taken seriously. The main market concern is the threatened tax on US consumers via tariffs. While other parts of the press conference might be dismissed as political theatre, investors may want more reassurance on this issue.
