ElectionWatch 2024

Investment insights on the US elections

Latest updates

CIO Alert: Equities rally on Trump victory

US equities and the US dollar have rallied, while bonds and China equities have sold off.

Don’t just do something, stand there!

How to manage the urge to do something—anything—to gain control over an uncertain situation.

Sustainable investing perspectives

A Trump 2.0 outcome is likely to represent more of a status quo than is widely anticipated by the market.

Tune in to Election Week virtual events

Join us for three conversations during the week of the election. Our next event is 7 November at 1 p.m. ET. 

Market insights

CIO Alert: Equities rally on Trump victory

US equities and the US dollar have rallied, while bonds and China equities have sold off.

Don’t just do something, stand there!

How to manage the urge to do something—anything—to gain control over an uncertain situation.

Sustainable investing perspectives: Trump 2.0 presidency implications

A Trump 2.0 outcome is likely to represent more of a status quo for sustainable investing strategies and their performance than is widely anticipated by the market.

Trump President, Senate Republican, House still uncertain

Donald Trump is projected to become the 47th President of the United States. We believe that investors should make forward-looking investment decisions on the assumption of a Trump victory.

Markets start pricing Trump victory

As markets digest the state-by-state tallies, we anticipate significant cross-asset volatility in the hours ahead.

Staying focused on Election Day

As we approach the US election, it's crucial for investors to remain focused on their long-term strategies.

Regional implications

What does a decisive Republican victory mean for emerging markets?

The near-term post-election environment appears challenging for emerging markets, despite tailwinds related to China’s stimulus and further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Implications for Europe

The conclusive result of the US presidential election removes one key uncertainty for Europe’s leaders and companies, but it also ushers in a range of new ones.

Investing in Asia Pacific: Persistent fog

In our view, while there is now more clarity on the US election outcome, a different type of uncertainty could persist past Election Day if volatility grows, and if hawkish policies emerge in tariff, trade, and tech restrictions.

Virtual events

Upcoming livestreams

Election first take

6 Nov at 1 p.m. ET

Replay coming soon. John Savercool, Head of Governmental Affairs US; David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities; and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income will provide our rapid reaction to the current vote count, equity and fixed income markets moves, and more.

Voting update and sector deep dive

7 Nov at 1 p.m. ET

Kurt Reiman will provide an update on the vote count and outcome, while Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Strategist, Kevin Dennean, Technology and Telecom Strategist, and Brad Ball, Financials Strategist, will dive into three of the most election sensitive sectors. 

11 September livestream replay

After the debate

11 Sep 2024

Jason Chandler
Head of GWM Americas

Solita Marcelli
Chief Investment Officer Americas

John Savercool
Head of the UBS US Office of Public Policy

26 August livestream replay

After the convention

26 Aug 2024

Tom McLoughlin
Co-lead of ElectionWatch, CIO Americas

Nadia Lovell
Senior US Equity Strategist, CIO Americas

23 July livestream replay

Implications of Biden’s exit

23 Jul 2024

John Savercool
Head of the UBS US Office of Public Policy

Solita Marcelli
Chief Investment Officer Americas

28 June livestream replay

After the debate: Reaction and implications

28 Jun 2024

John Savercool
Head of the UBS US Office of Public Policy

Tom McLoughlin
Co-lead of ElectionWatch, CIO Americas

David Lefkowitz
Head of Equities, UBS CIO Americas

4 April livestream replay

The race, the world, and investments

4 Apr 2024

About the event

With enough delegates secured to win the major party nominations, the presumptive presidential candidates, former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, are ramping up their campaigns. What are the implications of their policy proposals? How will events abroad impact politics at home? And what does it all mean for investments?

Part 1 of this conversation breaks down the state of the race, part 2 examines the geopolitical landscape as we approach November, and part 3 discusses the implications for the economy and financial markets.

Solita Marcelli  |  Host
Chief Investment Officer Americas, UBS Global Wealth Management

Frank Kelly  |  The race
Founder & Managing Partner at Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist at DWS

Mike Rogers  |  The world
Former Director of the National Security Agency

David Rubenstein  |  Investments
Co-Founder of The Carlyle Group

Special event with Mark Haefele and Marko Papic

A special conversation on the US elections

With Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management, and Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group

A special conversation on the US elections
A note on NATO

Featured videos

UBS Road to the Election

In this series, we sit down with research analysts and political experts to examine key election topics. Tune in for new episodes on Thursdays at 4:30 p.m. ET.

This video series has concluded

While there will be no new episodes of UBS Road to the Election, we encourage you to explore previous episodes you might have missed and to check out a new 3-part video series, Race to the White House, below. Please visit ubs.com/electionwatch through and after Election Day for continued coverage.

The bottom line

In its final days, the US presidential race couldn’t be tighter. Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income, CIO Americas, advises worried investors not to vote with their portfolios, and shares tactical ways to prepare for potential volatility.

China, trade, and the economy

If elected, how would Trump or Harris handle relations with China, including trade and tariffs? Robert Daly, Director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the US, says that, while their approaches would differ, preserving peace should be at the center.

Race to the White House

Too close to call

November fifth is around the corner. After an eventful campaign, voters are casting early ballots, ad spending is running hot, financial pledges are coming in thick and fast and the political campaigns are becoming increasingly confrontational. In this first episode of our 3-part US Election Special, Jon Gordon, CIO Investment Strategist, sits down with Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor at UBS Public Policy Office, to provide an update on what’s shaping up to be an exceptionally tight race.

Impact on foreign policy

The US election has global implications. It'll also impact America's role in global institutions and on the world stage. In the second episode of our 3-part US Election Special, Jon Gordon, CIO Investment Strategist, sits down with Oriana Skylar, Geopolitical Strategist, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Stanford University & Author of Upstart: How China became a Great Power to discuss how will the US election impact foreign policy.

Trump vs. Harris: Portfolio winners & losers

What will the results of November mean for you and your portfolio? And what steps should be taking right now to get ahead? In the last episode of our 3-part US Election Special, Jon Gordon, CIO Investment Strategist, speaks with Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, to discuss portfolio winners & losers in a Trump vs. Harris showdown.

Scenario analysis

As of 17 October 2024

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