US Politics and Policies

UBS Road to the Election

In this ElectionWatch video series, we sit down with research analysts and political experts to examine key topics in the 2024 US election. Tune in for new episodes on Thursdays at 4:30 p.m. ET.

This video series has concluded

While there will be no new episodes of UBS Road to the Election, we encourage you to explore previous episodes you might have missed and to check out a new 3-part video series, Race to the White House, below. Please visit ubs.com/electionwatch through and after Election Day for continued coverage.

October

 

Race to the White House

Too close to call

23 Oct 2024

November fifth is around the corner. After an eventful campaign, voters are casting early ballots, ad spending is running hot, financial pledges are coming in thick and fast and the political campaigns are becoming increasingly confrontational. In this first episode of our 3-part US Election Special, Jon Gordon, CIO Investment Strategist, sits down with Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor at UBS Public Policy Office, to provide an update on what’s shaping up to be an exceptionally tight race.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

Impact on foreign policy

23 Oct 2024

The US election has global implications. It'll also impact America's role in global institutions and on the world stage. In the second episode of our 3-part US Election Special, Jon Gordon, CIO Investment Strategist, sits down with Oriana Skylar, Geopolitical Strategist, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Stanford University & Author of Upstart: How China became a Great Power to discuss how will the US election impact foreign policy.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

Trump vs. Harris: Portfolio winners & losers

24 Oct 2024

What will the results of November mean for you and your portfolio? And what steps should be taking right now to get ahead? In the last episode of our 3-part US Election Special, Jon Gordon, CIO Investment Strategist, speaks with Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, to discuss portfolio winners & losers in a Trump vs. Harris showdown.

 

The bottom line

24 Oct 2024

Episode 31  |  In its final days, the US presidential race couldn’t be tighter. Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income, CIO Americas, advises worried investors not to vote with their portfolios, and shares tactical ways to prepare for potential volatility.

 

China, trade, and the economy

10 Oct 2024

Episode 30  |  If elected, how would Trump or Harris handle relations with China, including trade and tariffs? Robert Daly, Director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the US, says that, while their approaches would differ, preserving peace should be at the center.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

September

 

Investment survival guide

26 Sep 2024

Episode 29  |  Investors looking to make portfolio changes ahead of the election should know it’s not about winners and losers, says Phil Orlando, Chief Equity Market Strategist at Federated Hermes. It’s about staying invested for the long term. He shares the areas of the market poised for success this election season, covers what a contested election could mean for markets, and more.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

 

Muni tax exemption risk

19 Sep 2024

Episode 28  |  Will the election outcome affect municipal bonds tax exemptions? Perhaps. Whether Harris or Trump wins, there’s also a volatility risk for the muni market, says Bob DiMella, Co-head of MacKay Municipal Managers, who discusses considerations for the next president, including the expiring USD 10,000 SALT cap.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

 

Markets in a tight race

12 Sep 2024

Episode 27  |  What will markets look like heading into the election? Nadia Lovell, CIO Senior US Equity Strategist, weighs in on potential volatility and how the proposals Trump and Harris discussed in their first—and potentially only—debate could affect inflation and sectors, like housing and tech.

 

Inside the mind of a former Democratic staffer

5 Sep 2024

Episode 26  |  What could a path to success look like for Kamala Harris? Patti Solis Doyle, Partner and Head of US Public Affairs, Brunswick Group, explores ways Harris could reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, as well as possible outcomes for the House and Senate races, and more.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

 

Inside the mind of a former Republican staffer

5 Sep 2024

Episode 25  |  A successful campaign takes ideas, communication, and energy, says Lanhee Chen, Partner, Brunswick Group, who digs into the possible pathways to victory for presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

August

 

Emerging markets in focus

29 Aug 2024

Episode 24  |  The implications of the US election will reach beyond US borders, affecting emerging markets like Mexico, China, and India. Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer, Emerging Markets Americas, sheds light on how November’s winner could shape the overall direction of these relationships.

 

Speechwriting for presidents

22 Aug 2024

Episode 23  |  Terry Szuplat, author and former speechwriter for President Barack Obama, shares his best writing tips to reassure people in moments of fear, incorporate data, and more. He also explores how Harris, Trump, Walz, and Vance can use the spoken word to connect with voters.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

 

Spotlight on the Fed

15 Aug 2024

Episode 22  |  Could politics affect monetary policy? Rich Clarida, Global Economic Advisor at PIMCO and former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, discusses how the upcoming election may (or may not) play into the Fed’s thinking.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

 

Who is Tim Walz?

7 Aug 2024

Episode 21  |  Kamala Harris has selected her running mate, but who is Tim Walz? Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, explores the Minnesota Governor’s background, policies, and why Harris may have picked him.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

 

Kamala Harris in focus

1 Aug 2024

Episode 20  |  Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic nominee. How do her economic agenda and foreign policy stance differ from Biden’s, if at all? John Emerson, Vice Chairman of Capital Group International, discusses this and considers how more election drama could unfold.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

July

 

Biden out, Harris next?

23 Jul 2024

Episode 19  |  President Biden made the historic announcement that he’s dropping out of the presidential race. Tom McLoughlin, Senior Fixed Income Strategist and Co-lead of ElectionWatch, CIO Americas, explores the implications and the likelihood of VP Kamala Harris receiving the nomination.

 

Transition of power

18 Jul 2024

Episode 18  |  How are the national budget and foreign policy affected by presidential transitions? Admiral Jonathan Greenert, UBS Advisory Council Member and Former Chief of US Naval Operations, explores what a second term for Biden or Trump could mean.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

 

The tax impact

11 Jul 2024

Episode 17  |  Will the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire in 2025? Bill Cass, Director of Wealth Planning at Franklin Templeton, explores how taxes could be impacted by the election and how you can prepare for potential hikes.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

June

 

Gas at the polls

27 Jun 2024

Episode 16  |  Gas prices—a key election theme—will be top of mind for voters when they cast their ballots this November. But how much of an impact do elections really have on them? Stacey Morris, Head of Energy Research at VettaFi, explains.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

 

Implications for the EU

20 Jun 2024

Episode 15  |  US elections could impact European trade policies, defense budgets, and overall economic growth. Dean Turner, UK Economist CIO, UBS Global Wealth Management, looks at how different outcomes could affect these key areas.

 

AI in Chief

13 Jun 2024

Episode 14  |  Artificial intelligence is a powerful tool, but can it lead a country? Lebanon has launched an AI-powered president, and Paul Aaron, CEO and co-founder of Addition—a collaborator on the project—shares its progress and potential.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

May

 

Economics vs. politics

30 May 2024

Episode 13  |  Election conversations often focus on market reactions to a red or blue wave. Is there a correlation? Why, or why not? Josh Snyder, Global Investment Strategist at GQG Partners, shares insight into what impact, if any, the outcome could have on portfolios.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

 

Art and politics

23 May 2024

Episode 12  |  The outsize influence media has on political campaigns is no secret, but how is it used to position candidates and sway voters? Dr. Mary Schmidt Campbell, President Emerita, Spelman College, explores the power of media from political cartoons to TV ads and social media.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

 

Voter priorities

16 May 2024

Episode 11  |  What issues are top of mind for the American public? John Faso, former New York U.S. Representative, 19th District, explores the economy, foreign and fiscal policy, and more, breaking down how each topic could play for or against the presidential candidates.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

 

Global perspectives

9 May 2024

Episode 10  |  How do international investors view US politics? Paul Donovan, Chief Economist, UBS Global Wealth Management, shares a broad perspective of the often-sensationalized US elections and how perceptions of the global economy play into that view.

April

 

Energy and policy

25 Apr 2024

Episode 9  |  Energy is the lifeblood of the economy, and a hot button topic for the election. What could the November outcome mean for EVs, wind and solar energy, the Inflation Reduction Act, and even the gas pump? Jay Dobson, CIO Energy and Utilities Sector Strategist, weighs in.

 

Banks and the race

18 Apr 2024

Episode 8  |  One year after the banking crisis, the US Presidential election presents financial services with three lines of risk. Bradley Ball, CIO Equity Strategist, US Financials at UBS, shares how the November outcome could affect the banking sector.

 

Presidents and markets

11 Apr 2024

Episode 7  |  Emotions run high during election years but shouldn’t impact your investments. Apollo Lupescu, Vice President at Dimensional Fund Advisors, shares how elections are linked to markets and why it’s so critical to let data lead in investment decisions.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

March

 

Wealth and taxes

21 Mar 2024

Episode 6  |  With the direction of US taxes hinging on the election outcome, Ainsley Carbone, Total Wealth Strategist, CIO Americas, weighs in on what a Trump or Biden win could mean and how you can manage future liabilities either way.

 

Going global

14 Mar 2024

Episode 5  |  In 2024 alone, 80 nations will head to the polls. Angst is a common feeling for voters and investors alike. Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer Emerging Markets Americas, explains how to stay focused on elections that will really move the needle.

 

Looking past Super Tuesday

7 Mar 2024

Episode 4  |  Super Tuesday results, polling accuracy, and No Labels. John Savercool, Head of the UBS Office of Public Policy, explores what voters should pay attention to in the coming weeks that could impact the November election.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

February

 

Policies in focus

29 Feb 2024

Episode 3  |  Libby Cantrill, Head of US Public Policy at PIMCO, breaks down key issues that could decide the election, the congressional map, and the impact on personal taxes, regulation, defense spending, and more.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

 

War and Politics

22 Feb 2024

Episode 2  |  Admiral James Stavridis, Partner and Vice Chair, Global Affairs, The Carlyle Group, and 16th Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, joins Anthony Pastore to discuss the geopolitical landscape ahead of the election and the implications for investors.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

 

Investment implications of a rematch

15 Feb 2024

Episode 1  |  Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, breaks down the possible election outcomes and provides her take on what it could all mean for investors.