Washington Weekly: 2024 Presidential Election: Election Day Considerations

No one knows what election night, or perhaps election week, will bring us, but if it’s anything like the past six months then it’s probably safe to say that there will be some surprises. Think about the developments that have already occurred in this election cycle. The current president stepped down as his party’s nominee. A former president and major candidate has faced two assassination attempts and became the first convicted felon to be the nominee of a major party.

Over the past few weeks, we have seen tens of millions of voters choose to cast their ballot early, either in person or by mail. These numbers aren’t expected to be as high as 2020 when states relaxed rules on voting by mail due to the pandemic. Nevertheless, the data clearly shows that many voters aren’t reverting to pre-2020 habits either. One change is that more Republican voters have opted to vote early in 2024 so there’s less of a partisan tilt in the early-voting numbers. With the high volume of early voting along with polls showing high voter enthusiasm on both sides of the aisle, we are likely to see another high turnout election. Whether it matches 2020 remains to be seen.

High turnout brings a multitude of “X factors” to election night. There will be millions of new voters. Who are they and who do they support? Did polling reflect and accurately report this voting surge? Are the demographics of those casting their ballots accurately reflected in pre-election polls? These will be factors that we’ll be monitoring as results start to trickle in.

One thing won’t change this election: the winner will be determined by the results of just a handful of states. So, as we watch the returns come in, we want to pay the most attention to these states and their specific rules for counting ballots and declaring a winner. The first map below shows the very likely red and blue states along with the seven swing states (in tan) that we can use as a guide for election day evening considerations. Under this scenario, Harris leads the contest with a 226-219 electoral vote lead with 93 votes from the seven swing states up for grabs. The winner must get to 270.

In an indicative timeline of key developments, we outline below how election night might unfold. For those who want to follow along as we do, we’ve included some key races to watch in the Senate and House as well as an assortment of important counties in presidential swing states. The pathways to victory in the presidential race are relatively straightforward and are really a mathematical exercise in how to accumulate the required 270 electoral votes to win.

Note: We expect the states colored blue to be won by Vice President Harris and the states colored red to be won by former President Trump. The blue states total 226 electoral votes, while the red states total 219 electoral votes. More competitive “swing” states are colored tan.

8:00 p.m. ET:

Polls will close on much of the east coast and part of the Midwest. We can expect the first early election results to be available shortly after this time. Results will be reported as they become available, but most will not be final. Most states in this group will not be competitive and award their electoral votes predictably to one candidate or the other. Three swing states -- Georgia (16), North Carolina (16) and Pennsylvania (19) -- are among the states that will close their polls at this time, though we don’t expect to have final results for any of them right away. Trump’s easiest pathway to the White House revolves around winning all three of these states, and NC is the state most likely to provide the earliest results of the three.

NC has the fewest mail ballots of the three aforementioned states. It aims to report at least 90% of its results by midnight on election night. This of course doesn’t mean that we’ll know who won by then. In 2020, it took ten days for NC to be called, but if the race swings by a few points in either direction we may have a good idea who’s going to win the state. Two areas to keep an eye on election night are Cabarrus County (Trump won by 9% in 2020) and Nash County (Biden won by 0.2%). How the candidates are performing here may be instructive for how the state will go. A complicating factor on voting and counting votes could be the destruction caused by Hurricane Helene. NC is a must-win state for Trump, while a Harris victory here would put her in a much stronger position to win nationally.

GA was the final state to be called in 2020 (it wasn’t called until 11/19). Georgia traditionally has been able to tally votes quickly. It was only due to how close 2020 was that the results took so long. Baldwin County (which Biden won by 1.3%) and Fayette County (Trump by 7%) are two counties that both candidates will be monitoring to gauge their performance as they attempt to improve upon the 2020 margins. Like NC, a Harris victory in GA would put her in a very good position to win the race. Trump expects to win GA.

While PA was not the last state to report in 2020, many readers likely will associate it with the wait and uncertainty following election day since it wasn’t until PA and NV were called on Saturday that Biden was declared the victor. PA, along with WI, are the two swing states that do not allow pre-processing of mail-in ballots. In 2020, this led to a “red mirage” where in-person votes were counted much more rapidly than the Democratic skewed mail ballots. This phenomenon will be less pronounced this year since voting by mail will be less prevalent than it was in 2020 and there will be less of a partisan split to early voting. Three counties to keep an eye on are Bucks (Biden won by 4.4%), Cumberland (Trump won by 11%) and Northampton (Biden by 1.2%). An important note here is that if Harris wins either GA or NC, the race becomes much more difficult for Trump, and should she win both then we think the race is all but over. Trump would be forced to win AZ, PA and NV in order to overcome losing GA or NC. Pennsylvania is crucially important to both Harris and Trump and is the most likely state to be the tipping point.

9:00 p.m. ET:

Polls will close in an additional 15 states. In total, just under 80% of states will have closed their polls by this time. Arizona (11), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10) are the next swing states to finish voting during this time. Don’t expect any of these three to have declared a winner on election night unless the race isn’t as close as expected. However, MI was one of the earliest swing states to have a declared winner in 2020 and it has improved upon its ballot processing procedures following the 2020 elections. MI now expects to be able to have final results reported by Wednesday. Muskegon County may be one of the strongest early indicators for how Harris and Trump are performing among blue-collar working-class voters. While Biden won it by 0.6% in 2020, the trendline since has been away from Democrats. A win in MI is crucial for the Harris victory strategy and a loss would put Trump in a much stronger position to win nationally.

AZ is a state accustomed to dealing with elections conducted mostly by mail (frequently over 75%) and officials there are allowed to begin processing mail ballots before election day. However, the prevalence of mail ballots being delivered to precincts on election day can result in slower returns, especially in all important Maricopa County (Biden won by 2.2%). It’s not uncommon for statewide elections to take several days to resolve in AZ, and 2024 will likely be more of the same. The prevailing wisdom is that Trump will win in AZ.

Despite lower vote by mail numbers, WI will join AZ in taking some time to determine the final results due to more restrictive mail-in ballot counting procedures. WI was the tipping point in both 2016 and 2020. Despite polls showing it as Harris’s strongest swing state, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this year be another nail-biter. Sauk County (Biden 1.7%) has been a reliable bellwether in recent years with the margins in the county matching the state’s results as a whole. As the results from the 8:00 p.m. swing states are more clear, the 9:00 p.m. swing states will become important. If the race isn’t as competitive as polling leads us to believe, then it’s possible that we’ll have some clues as to the winner in this time range. But, if margins are as tight as expected, the only reliable election calls are likely to be safely red or blue states.

10:00 p.m. ET:

By this time, vote counts in many other states where the polls closed earlier will be adding up and we will have seen then winners called for most of the safer states. Nevada (6), the last of the swing states, will close its polls but ballots will continue to be accepted up until three days after election day. Ordinarily, this is a negligible portion of the vote. However, Nevada is another state that votes heavily by mail and voters typically cast their ballots closer to election day than other states. This confluence of factors means that Nevada often is unable to declare a winner for several days as was true in both 2020 and the 2022 statewide races. It’s unlikely that the election will come down to Nevada, but, if it does, Washoe County (Biden 4.5%) is worth monitoring as Harris will rely on turnout there to offset any losses (relative to Biden’s performance) in Clark County, which encompasses Las Vegas. NV is the smallest of the swing states and probably the least important in determining the ultimate winner.

At 11 p.m. ET, the polls for four other states will close, which will signal the end of voting for the continental United States. Hawaii and Alaska will close at midnight and 1 a.m. (both ET) respectively. By a little after 11 p.m. ET, the results should be called in most of the safe states, though some states still will be counting mail votes after the election. Both candidates at this point should be approaching their electoral college vote floors, with Trump likely having secured around 216 electoral votes and Harris around 222 electoral votes once California is called. Some swing states also may be called by this time if either candidate has a sufficient enough margin to make the final outcome clear.

At this time, Texas will have reported a significant number of its votes, and while there has been strong early voting, Lone Star State voters usually vote in person. This means that the figures being reported will be “true” numbers that aren’t influenced by partisan trends among mail voters. Texas may not be in play for the presidential contest (if it is, the race will likely be called for Harris), but it will provide important insights into polling, demographic voting trends and whether Democrats have any shot of picking up a long-shot Senate seat.

If the race is going to be a strong win for either candidate, we will likely know at this point, although the result won’t be final. Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan will have reported the vast majority of their votes while Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be a little behind in their reporting. Many mail ballots will still be uncounted in all of these states though and given election forecasters desire not to make a premature declaration, it wouldn’t be surprising to see every swing state still uncalled.

By this time, most of us should be in bed.

Races in Congress.

Understandably, Congressional elections don’t receive the same attention as the presidential race, but they play a crucial role in determining just how effective the newly elected president will be. Their outcomes will determine what policy agendas can pass the House and Senate next year, regardless of who is sitting in the Oval Office.

As thing stand, the battle for the Senate seems to have the most clarity with Republicans having a straightforward pathway to the majority by flipping the Democratic held seat in WV and then winning the presidency or picking up one additional seat. Republicans will have pickup opportunities when polls close at 7:00 p.m. in OH, at 8:00 p.m. in PA, 9:00 p.m. in AZ, MI and WI, and at 10:00 p.m. in NV and MT. Democrats have an outside shot at flipping seats in FL (8:00 p.m.), NE (9:00 p.m.) or TX (9:00 p.m.), which could provide an avenue for them to keep control of the Senate. However, the likelihood of Republicans flipping the upper chamber seems more likely with a net of two seats needed for outright control or a single seat if Trump wins the presidency.

The House, as with the presidency, is a coin flip. Republicans’ current four seat majority is one of the narrowest majorities in modern history, and both sides of the aisle believe they’ll be in charge come January. With roughly 35 competitive House seats (less than 10% of the House), every toss-up House race is going to be crucial. When polls close at 7:00 p.m., keep an eye on NC-1, OH-9, VA-2 and VA-7. At 8:00 p.m., look at NJ-7, PA-8 and PA-10. At 9:00 p.m., important races in AZ-1, AZ-6, MI-7, MI-8, NE-2, NY-4, NY-17, NY-19 and NY-22 will be determined. At 10 p.m., races in IA-1 and IA-3 should be concluded. Finally, 11:00 p.m. brings closures in CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-45, CA-47, OR-5 and WA-3. Neither party will win all of those races, but the battle for the House will depend on their outcomes.

Our bottom lines are that (1) Republicans will likely take control of the Senate, and (2) the House is likely to align with whichever presidential candidate wins the presidency, but there are viable pathways for either party to win even if their nominee does not.