capitol building

This Month:

The Senate and House will be out of session until after the elections.

The Lead

Any October Surprises?

Election history in the US is replete with “October Surprises,” late and unexpected developments that can sway the election outcome. In perhaps the first one in 1840, supporters of incumbent Democrat President Martin Van Buren lodged accusations that the opposing Whig Party was buying votes of some Pennsylvania voters. While the Whigs acknowledged this, this bombshell didn’t secure victory for the unpopular Van Buren. He went on to lose to William Henry Harrison, who died a month into office (still on record for the shortest presidency in history). More recently, the 2016 election had a couple of surprises in the last month of the election. From FBI Director Jim Comey’s announced reopening of an investigation of Hillary Clinton’s private and public use of her email server to the release of a videotape of Donald Trump bragging about his celebrity status and sexual exploits. Will we see any October Surprises this month? We discuss some possibilities below.

  • Storms and Hurricanes. A second major hurricane hit the Florida Gulf Coast this week, following devastating flooding a week before in many regions of the south, including Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia. Since displaced residents understandably will worry more about rebuilding homes and their general welfare than voting, storm-affected states in the south could see depressed voting turnout as a result. The floods hit rural areas the hardest, and those are strong Trump areas. In swing states like GA and NC, where the races are too close to call, even some depression of votes could have an outsized impact on the results. NC recently sent out mail ballots to many NC voters, some of which are likely destroyed now. Also, under public scrutiny will be how effectively the Biden-Harris administration is responding to the hurricanes. If voters believe the response is effective and serious, this would help Vice President Harris. If they think the response is lacking, this would help Trump. This issue became front-and-center on the news this week, and the two campaigns will bicker about this through election day. Election-related issues generated by the storms are ongoing and serious and are shaping up to be an October Surprise in at least a couple of the swing states.
  • Middle East. Conflicts in the Middle East are ongoing and will continue this month, but will they widen to direct conflict between Israel and Iran? We don’t know, but that type of development over the next few weeks would be a major story on the eve of election day. How would US voters respond and would they fear direct US involvement? Would President Biden fully support Israel and how would that affect different voting blocs in the US? We already have witnessed significant protests in the US over Israel’s military activity in Gaza. This has led to some division among Democratic voters. A significant number of Arab American voters live in Michigan (over 200,000) and Georgia (over 150,000), and they could decline to support Vice President Harris if they don’t like the US response. In the Democratic primary election, 100,000 of these voters voted in protest as “uncommitted” instead of for the unopposed President Biden. If new military activity involved Iran directly, voter reaction may be shaped by the duration of the operations. While quick success by Israel likely would generate the least amount of concern, many voters will be nervous with the possibility of a long conflict that could directly involve the US.
  • Port Strike. An early October strike by the International Longshoreman Association (which represents 45,000 US port workers on the eastern and southern coasts) had the potential of being an October Surprise, but it was temporarily pushed back to January 15. That helps Harris. While the issue about the port workers’ pay has been resolved, there is still the thorny issue of automation and its impact on port operations and workers, which remains unresolved. The strike will resume mid-January if this issue is not resolved. Automation issues will be incredibly difficult to resolve, and our sense is that the next president will have his or her hands full with the continuation of this strike on the eve of their swearing in just days later.
  • Economy is Settled. Key economic indicators and factors are unlikely to change between now and election day. We know of one final jobs report to be released on November 1, but economists will pay more attention to that data than inflation-focused voters will. The economy is cited by voters as the most important issue in determining their vote. The economy we have today is very likely to be the economy (and voter perceptions of it) we have on election day. We don’t see a major economic event evolving in October to impact the election.
  • Votes Already Banked. About 3,500,000 Americans have already voted in the 30 states that have started early voting. Other states will follow and allow early voting over the next few weeks prior to election day. October Surprises won’t impact those votes at all since they can’t be recalled. By election day, more than half of all those who vote would have already voted. The reality is that as more US voters vote early, the impact of October Surprises is diminished.

The Elections

Demystifying Polling.

In the run up to election day, every new poll seemingly generates headlines about projected winners and losers. While imperfect, polling is still an important tool for reading elections. That being said, most of the polls on which the media focuses are national polls, which aren’t the most important surveys. Instead, polling in the battleground states (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA and WI) provides the most important metrics. When looked at individually and in the aggregate, all seven states are within the margin of error. Both Vice President Harris and President Trump having a realistic shot at winning each of them. The reality is that either candidate can win any of these seven states, and this race (based on the outcome in these seven states) is just too close to call for now.

Polling in Detail.

For better insights into the intricacies of polling, check out the interview that Colin Craib in our office conducted last week with award-winning national pollster Ben Tulchin here.

Election Result Timing?

With recent polling showing an incredibly close race, especially in the swing states, we should also consider just when we will know who won. In 2020, it took four days for Pennsylvania – and the election – to be called for President Biden due to the closeness of the race and the large amount of mail ballots that had to be counted. Some states have since made improvements to their election processes, and 2024 will likely have fewer mail ballots than in 2020. Nevertheless, we likely won’t know the final results for at least a few days. Many of the swing states are especially vulnerable to delays. Arizona and Nevada both conduct their elections primarily by mail, and both took multiple days to count all of the statewide votes in 2022. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will have a smaller percentage of mail voters, but both states’ ballot procedures prohibit election workers from beginning any of the ballot pre-processing procedures until after polls officially close on election day. This will likely lead to another “red mirage” where both states show elevated vote counts for Republicans early in the night and a catch-up by Democrats as mail ballots are counted later. While tallying up ballots likely won't take as long as 2020, it's safe to say that if the election is as close as it is predicted to be, it’s unlikely that we will know the result by bedtime.

Tipping Points.

As both candidates are laser-focused on executing their final strategies to get to 270 electoral votes and victory in November, it’s become clear that one state will have an outsized influence: Pennsylvania. With the Harris and Trump campaign focusing on different pathways to 270 electoral votes (MI, PA and WI for Harris, GA, NC and PA for Trump), the Keystone State and its 19 electoral votes (the largest of any swing state) is the common denominator. Indeed, we believe that the state has the best chance of being the “tipping point” state that will push either candidate over the 270 electoral votes needed to win. In both 2020 and 2016, the tipping point state was Wisconsin. Over the next 25 days, the two candidates, as well as their running mates and surrogates, will be in PA more than any other state for a reason.

Post Election Legal Battle.

Election day hasn’t arrived yet, but litigation around voting practices and rules is in full force now. Over 90 lawsuits have already been filed across the country by various Republican groups this year, more than triple than what was filed before election day in 2020. These efforts are questioning various state practices and could be laying the groundwork to contest some election results. These efforts will generate headlines and could extend final election results depending how they are addressed by the legal system.