Washington Weekly: Close Election and Undecided Voters

The Senate and House will be out of session until after the elections.

In Washington.

Things are relatively quiet in Washington with Congress currently out on recess. With government funding set to expire by December 15, the Senate and House will return to session after the November elections to work on an extension. Members also will use the time in November to strategize with colleagues and try to better position themselves for the next Congress. By then, they will know which party will be in the majority and what their options will be. Junior members in the majority party will jockey to get on higher-profile and more substantive committees, while more senior members will try to secure key subcommittee or committee chairmanships. This work will be done in private conversations. It will test their personal relationships and the respect they have earned (or not) from their colleagues. The work Congress must do in November and December pales in comparison to the plans that many will craft for the next Congress in 2025.

Close Election and Undecided Voters.

This week’s polling in the seven swing states show incredibly close contests between Vice President Harris and former President Trump. Truly, either candidate can win in any of the seven states. Both candidates are polling at about 47-48 percent, which suggests there is still room to increase their votes with undecided voters. In these states, the undecided vote is roughly between 3-5 percent. Some of these voters will vote for a third-party candidate, but most will vote for one of the two major candidates. These voters generally are less focused on the election than most voters. If they vote, they will likely do so in person on election day. They are less partisan than many other voters and are generally unhappy with both choices. In a race that is likely to be decided by only tens of thousands of votes, how undecided voters in the swing states vote will likely determine the winner in November. In 2016, they broke late for Trump, while in 2020, undecided voters favoring Biden were a key factor in battleground states. As things stand, most polls have undecided voters split down the middle when pushed to choose a candidate. History shows that this thin slice of the electorate plays an outsized role in close elections, so we won't be surprised if they decide the results this November as well.

Where Things Stand.

As of today, over 9 million voters have already cast their ballot, roughly 5.8 percent of the total votes cast in the 2020 presidential election. These voters have likely known which candidate they will support for a long time and most of the early mail-in ballots have been submitted by registered Democrats. Early voting will open up in 13 more states in the next week. The vote is already on.

House Elections.

House Republicans currently have a majority of only four seats in the lower chamber. Less than 30 seats seem to be competitive among the 435 different races as of today. We have always thought that the party whose candidate wins the White House also will win a narrow House majority. We still believe that. Various seats in New York and California represent many of the competitive districts. With the narrow margins and the focus on many races in CA, which has more generous mail-in ballot rules, we will likely not know of the full House results (including which party has the majority) for several days.

Senate Elections.

With many close races in the House and the nail-biter in the presidential race, the outcome of the Senate races is a bit easier to project. That is because Republicans have a significant advantage when looking at the 34 Senate elections that are taking place. Republicans have far fewer seats to defend, and Democrats are defending seats in states that Trump has won in the last two elections (OH, MT and WV) as well as a slew of seats in battleground states (AZ, NV, PA and WI). Republicans just need to net a single seat to have a majority if Trump wins and two seats under a Harris win. They are certain to recapture the West Virginia seat from which Senator Joe Manchin is retiring. A Republican pick-up opportunity in MT looks promising, while seats in OH, MI and PA also offer potential. The math points to Republicans gains of at least two and therefore a majority if they hold the 11 seats they are defending (which is likely). Democrats are hopeful of upsets in NE, TX and FL to counter the Republican wins. We expect the Senate to be controlled by Republicans next year and led by a new majority leader.

Third Party Updates.

If you have forgotten that there are candidates other than Harris and Trump running for president, you aren’t alone. In current polls the aggregate for all third-party candidates is only 1-2 percent. This represents a drastic decline from polling earlier this year, but there is still reason to believe they could play a role in inadvertently helping one of the two major candidates. In MI and PA, Green Party nominee Jill Stein has begun focusing on a possible Democratic weakness with the roughly 280,000 Arab American voters and is campaigning to win them over, a threat that Democrats are taking seriously as evidenced by the recent attack ads against her. Robert F Kennedy Jr., former Democratic and Independent candidate, who dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, will remain on the ballot in some states (including swing states like MI and WI) and could draw votes that may have otherwise gone to Trump. Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver has also qualified for the ballot in 47 states. The Libertarian nominee has traditionally garnered the most votes of all third parties. Talk around third parties has died down recently, but don't be surprised if they still make their mark when all is said and done.

Ballot Measures.

While all eyes have been on the presidential race, it’s worth noting some important ballot measures that will be voted on at the state level. Voters in 41 states will vote on over 150 ballot initiatives in November. Ten states (AZ, CO, FL, MD, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY and SD) will consider abortion measures. Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, there were ballot measures in six states in 2022 to expand abortion access. There are also election-related ballot measures in many states over redistricting, open primaries and ranked choice voting (where voters rank candidates in order of their preference and, if a majority is not reached, then the votes are retabulated until a candidate gains a majority). Voters in four states (CO, ID, NV and OR) and DC will consider whether to adopt ranked choice voting and voters in AK will decide whether to repeal it. Eight states (ID, IA, KY, MO, NC, OK, SC and WI) will vote on constitutional amendments to prohibit noncitizens from voting in state and local elections. It is already illegal at the federal level for noncitizens to vote in federal elections and only a handful of municipalities allow some noncitizens to vote in local races. However, banning noncitizen voting at the state level has become more frequent with six states having approved measures since 2018. Other significant ballot initiatives include minimum wage (AK, AZ, CA, MA and MO), marijuana legalization (FL, NE, ND and SD), criminal justice (AZ, CA and CO), same-sex marriage (CA, CO and HI) and school choice (CO, KY and NE). The outcome of these ballot measures has the potential to reshape state policy on some key issues and could attract some new voters who are passionate about these issues.