Washington Weekly: Trump Momentum

Both the Senate and House were out of session due to the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

The Senate will vote on various Biden administration nominees. The House will vote on a number of government spending bills covering various federal agencies for fiscal year 2025. Both chambers will hold a joint meeting of Congress with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (see below).

Trump Momentum.

The three weeks following the June 27 debate with President Biden may have been the best three weeks of former President Trump’s political career. He has benefitted from the persistent squabbling among Democrats about whether President Biden should step aside. He also mustered some sympathy and respect for how he responded to the attempted assassination last weekend. If the election was held today, he would very likely win. Two national polls have been released since last weekend and both show additional (but small) gains for Trump. It is likely that further polls released over the next few days will show the same – a lead both nationally and in the swing states. Despite the Trump progress, we still expect this race to be close to the end. Trump has been on a roll over the last three weeks, largely due to unexpected developments. Those serve as a good reminder that this race likely will feature more unexpected developments that could push the race in either direction over the next 15 weeks.

JD Vance.

With the nomination of Senator JD Vance (R-OH) to join the Republican ticket, it’s clear that Trump sees his pathway to the White House going through the former “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and working class voters generally. Biden won all three states in 2020 and likely has to win them again in order to win the election. Trump is currently polling ahead in these states, but with small margins. Senator Vance’s background seems to match up well with the targeted rust belt voters, and he also seemed to be the most committed to the Trump policy agenda among the other VP choices that Trump considered. Vance will be criticized for his dearth of experience and his limited record of accomplishments in the Senate. While he won his Senate seat by six points in 2022, the incumbent Republican governor from Ohio won his race by 22 points that same year. That has triggered questions about Vance’s electoral appeal in OH, and by extension, MI, PA and WI. With his selection, Vance is positioned to be the future of the Republican Party in 2028 if Trump wins this year.

Still Waiting on Biden.

President Biden has been adamant that he will stay in the race despite deep anxiety among Democratic Party leaders and the rank-and-file that he can win in November. He caught a break this week with the bright media spotlight on Trump and the Republican convention (instead of on him). The President remains in a very precarious position today. Only a few people (former President Obama tops the list) likely could convince the President to step aside. While there continues to be quiet nudges from senior Democrats for him to do that, none have gone public with their concerns in an aggressive way. Views are mixed in Washington about whether the President will stay on the ticket, but for the first time we sense that a door has opened for him to more seriously consider stepping down. We believe a final decision will be made in the next few days.

Early Nomination Chatter.

A group of Democratic lawmakers that called for Biden to step down elevated their fight this week by opposing an effort by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to nominate him virtually before the convention in August (August 19-22) and thereby locking him as the nominee before further opposition mounts. Earlier this year, the DNC announced that Democrats would be forced to hold a virtual roll call to ratify the Democratic nominee due to a ballot qualification deadline in Ohio that would occur before the DNC. At that time, this was not a controversial issue. Biden was comfortably the nominee-in-waiting without any of the opposition that exists now. While Ohio has since eliminated its earlier deadline challenge, the DNC is still pushing for the earlier nomination (by no later than August 7). This tactic is viewed by skeptical Democrats as a power play by the President to sidestep opposition to his nomination at a time his status is still up in the air. This point of contention is another sign that the fight over whether Biden will be the Democratic nominee has been strongly contested.

Dueling Investigations.

The security lapses associated with the attempted assassination of Trump has launched multiple investigations in Congress and the executive branch. The issue will be subject of at least one hearing next week in the House. The primary focus will be on the Secret Service and its plan to secure the rally site on Saturday. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle will especially be on the hot seat. We would not be surprised if she resigns her position any day now. One thing the agency can’t claim is that its plans were faulty because of a lack of funding. While many federal agencies have been subject to reductions or slight spending increases over the past year, the Homeland Security Department budget increased by nine percent. The upshot to all of this is that Trump and third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will receive enhanced security, and Congress may pass bipartisan legislation to require that. There is still a lot to learn about what happened and why at the PA rally site, and many dots should be connected for us in the coming weeks.

Netanyahu Speech.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will address a joint session of Congress next Wednesday afternoon. The speech has been widely anticipated and would currently be getting front-page media coverage if it weren’t for the major political developments in the US. Netanyahu’s goal is to energize and elevate US interest in Israel’s fight in the Middle East. The speech will revive many of the divisions among US voters on how Israel is prosecuting the war, particularly among Democratic leaders and voters on how, or if, the US should continue to support Israel. Many Democratic lawmakers, including those in leadership, plan to boycott the speech, and this division and the complications it poses for President Biden will be the story that emerges next week more so than what Netanyahu actually will say.

Rent is Too Darn High.

President Biden this week urged Congress to pass legislation to cap some residential rent increases to five percent annually. The increasing cost of housing has become a major issue for many voters and lawmakers. These concerns are prevalent in both urban and rural areas. While President Biden’s proposal won’t advance in Congress, we are keeping an eye on a bipartisan bill known as the “Yes In My Backyard Act” written by Senators Todd Young (R-IN) and Brian Schatz (D-HI). It encourages local communities to reduce regulations, such as local zoning and land use policies, which exacerbate higher housing prices. This bipartisan bill won’t solve all the problems with housing prices increases, but lawmakers are looking for bipartisan answers and this one is gaining some interest.

Rail Safety Bill.

Let’s go back to Senate Vance again. His biggest priority in the Senate during his first 18 months of service has been the federal response to the horrific train derailment in East Palestine, OH in February 2023. The derailment released toxic pollutants throughout the town and caused severe environmental and health problems. In the aftermath, Senator Vance crafted a bill with the other Ohio Senator, Sherrod Brown (D), to enact new safety procedures for trains carrying hazardous materials, including a minimum two-person train crew for such trains. The bill passed out of a Senate committee last year but has not been subject to a vote in the full Senate. The rail industry and many Senate Republicans oppose the bill as a regulatory over-reaction to the incident. With Vance’s increased prominence, can he now convince other Republicans to support the bill? The bill’s passage would give Vance a personal boost, but would Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) want to give him a “win” by scheduling the bill for a vote so close to the election? Senator Brown is engaged in a tight re-election race and would also benefit from the bill’s passage. All was quiet on the rail safety legislative front until Senator Vance became the VP candidate, and the future of this bill may change as a result.

Senate Expulsion Soon?

Earlier this week, Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) was convicted on all federal charges that were brought against him for corruption. Menendez becomes the sixth sitting US Senator to be convicted of a crime, though he has stated that he plans to appeal the charges. His protests of innocence have not won over his colleagues, though, with a number of them already calling for him to resign, including Senate Majority Leader Schumer and fellow New Jersey Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ). Senator Booker has said he will lead an expulsion draft should Menendez not resign. To date, 21 Members of Congress have been expelled (15 from the Senate and six from the House), but 17 of those were expelled for supporting Confederate States in 1861 and 1862. Excluding those Senators, the only Senator to have been expelled was William Blount of Tennessee who was expelled ln 1797 for conspiracy and treason. It seems clear that Menendez’s days in the Senate are numbered, and the biggest outstanding question is whether he’ll go quietly or in infamy.