Yesterday afternoon, President Joe Biden announced he would no longer seek re-election. He also announced his support for Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him. Given Biden’s poor debate performance in June and his continuing troubles, this was not too surprising of a development. Where do we go from here? We try to answer that question and others below.
What specifically did President Biden announce yesterday?
President Biden announced that he will not run for re-election. This means that he will forego the nomination that he won through the primary election process and allow delegates (that he accumulated as part of winning the primary election) to support another candidate at the Democratic Convention.
President Biden is not resigning from his current office of president. Some Republican lawmakers will insist that he do so, but he will remain in office and fill out his term until Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025.
Will Vice President Harris become the nominee?
As a part of his announcement, the President endorsed Vice President Harris to be the party’s nominee. This endorsement will carry significant weight among Democrats generally and the convention delegates who will now switch their support from Biden to another candidate. Presumably, most of those delegates will follow Biden’s lead and support Harris, but they aren’t required to do so. They are free to support any candidate. It’s not clear at this moment whether other candidates will emerge.
The Vice President has some clear advantages over other candidates. She has the Biden endorsement at a time when party voters are sympathetic to him. She also is already on the Biden-Harris re-election ticket and will have access to its campaign funds (nearly $100 million at the end of June). If any Democratic nominee would campaign on the Biden record, she is closest to it and presumably could make that case more credibly than other candidates.
The Vice President also must carry some of the disadvantages from the Biden campaign, including voter dissatisfaction with inflation, immigration and the general mood of the country. Perhaps she can infuse greater enthusiasm among Democratic voters, especially younger and minority voters. Early indications appear to show there is enthusiasm for her (she raised $50 million in less than 24 hours after Biden’s announcement), but only time will tell how lasting that enthusiasm will be.
Can other candidates run for the nomination?
Yes, but as we have stated, the Vice President has unique advantages. New candidates would have to very quickly gather support among the delegates choosing the nominees. They would have to compellingly state their case for running and prove themselves as better alternatives than Harris. These are difficult requirements in such a short time period, regardless of how appealing any other candidates may be.
It’s important to emphasize how Democrats need to be unified at a high level to beat Trump, and any competition at the convention may be viewed by some delegates as contrary to that goal. Other candidates may conclude that it’s too risky to compete now and will look to 2028 to run when there could be more of an open election (if Trump wins this year).
Who specifically decides who the nominee is and how does the process work normally?
Elected Democratic delegates will vote to determine who the nominee is, either via a virtual roll call vote, which could come as early as August 1, or at the convention. These delegates are by all means ordinary people from all walks of life but who are more passionate about their politics. They were elected along with Biden during the primary elections in their states to earn the right to serve as a delegate.
The Democratic National Convention will take place in Chicago from August 19-22 where 3,949 delegates will meet to decide who becomes the party’s nominee. The first round of voting requires 1,976 delegate votes to secure the nomination. The threshold increases from the second round of balloting onwards due to the addition of “superdelegates.” With an estimated 739 superdelegates joining the vote, roughly a 20% increase, 2,258 delegate votes will be needed to win the nomination after the first round.
As many will remember, superdelegates are party leaders and elected officials such as Members of Congress, elected members of the Democratic National Committee, governors and others of similar nature. They lost their ability to vote on the first ballot after the 2016 Democratic primary, but their role would be key in a brokered convention and in theory would allow for the Democratic establishment to help usher in a preferred candidate.
What is the timetable for the election of a nominee?
The process began the minute after Biden announced his decision to withdraw. The Vice President is today working the phones and talking to delegates and other party leaders to gauge her level of support. Other potential candidates are more quietly doing the same thing, trying to determine whether a more open competition would be acceptable to delegates, and if so, who they may consider.
The vote could be more of a formality if Harris is the only candidate, or it could be chaotic if other candidates enter the race and prove to be competitive.
How does the process work If multiple candidates enter the race and are competitive?
If a consensus candidate emerges prior to the convention, the odds are high he or she could secure enough delegates to become the nominee in the first round of voting, which only requires a simple majority. This scenario would almost certainly require that Biden and Democratic party leaders all endorse the candidate. Should a consensus not emerge, and no candidate receives the necessary majority on the first ballot, then the convention would turn into a “brokered” convention, something that hasn’t happened since 1952 when it took three rounds of balloting in order to select Adlai Stevenson as the Democratic nominee.
In a brokered convention, candidates would need to secure 300 delegate signatures to be nominated at the convention, and those from large states would have a significant advantage with their home state delegates and an easier pathway to being nominated (due to having more delegates). While the mechanics of a brokered convention would occur next month, the groundwork will start immediately as candidates will need to begin to fundraise, hit the morning shows and begin the process of making their case to the delegates.
Who are some of the competitors to Harris?
Frequently mentioned names include Governors Andy Beshear (KY), Roy Cooper (NC), Gavin Newsom (CA), JB Pritzker (IL), Josh Shapiro (PA) and Gretchen Whitmer (MI), though Newsom has explicitly said he would not challenge Harris and Whitmer has stated she will not seek the nomination this year.
If she is the nominee, who will Harris select as vice president?
The final piece of the puzzle will be to determine who the new vice-presidential nominee will be. Regardless of who ends up being the nominee, Democrats are expected to pick someone who would help with working class voters in the traditional “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, especially given that Senator JD Vance is the Republican vice-presidential nominee for much the same reason. Many of the names being floated are the same governors mentioned before, all of whom have presidential ambitions. Governors Beshear, Cooper and Shapiro along with Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) seem to have the inside track should Harris become the nominee. The vice-presidential choice rarely moves the needle with voters one way or the other in modern politics, but for Democrats it is likely to hold greater importance this year due to the tumultuous nature of how the ticket is shaping up for them, and the need to perfectly thread the needle less than 100 days before the election.
How does this change the general election dynamics?
Trump is winning in the vast majority of public polls, both nationally and in the pivotal swing states. Removing Biden from the race may help, but we believe that Trump still has an advantage that won’t easily be overcome given the Vice President’s limited record and her proximity to many of the more controversial Biden policies. Harris will change some of the fundamental issues of the race, particularly around age, but it will take weeks for quality polling to reveal whether a change in nominee produces any meaningful movement in the race.
It’s important to note that we believe this race will be close regardless of who is running. While Trump is currently winning, he seems to have hard ceiling of support due to the polarized electorate.
