Washington Weekly: 2024 Presidential Election Battleground States

Arizona (11 Electoral Votes).

Historically a Republican stronghold, Trump won AZ by 3.5 points in 2016, but Biden narrowly won the state in 2020 by about 10,000 votes. The shift in AZ has largely been due to demographic changes with a growing Latino population and increased support for Democrats in Maricopa County, which is the fourth largest county in the country with a population of about 4.5 million people. Despite Democrats winning the three most recent Senate races (2018, 2020, 2022) and the 2020 gubernatorial election, Republicans and Trump appear to have a narrow edge this election with a slight 2% aggregate lead in polls. AZ is one of the states that relies heavily on voting by mail (over 75%), meaning that both campaigns will focus heavily on ensuring their voters return their ballots. Polling has shown Trump making inroads with Hispanic voters, particularly men, and whether this is correct may be the deciding factor in Arizona.

Georgia (16 Electoral Votes).

Biden won GA in an upset in 2020, largely due to support from the rapidly expanding suburbs around Atlanta. However, much like AZ, Democrats worry that the state’s recent Democratic wins in 2020 (White House and Senate) and 2022 (Senate race) may be outliers. Polling aggregates show Trump with a modest 2% lead, and early voting has been off to a quick start with over two million voters already casting their ballot. Women, a strong demographic that favors Harris, have been outpacing men so far in early voting. Bolstering the Trump campaign’s hopes is polling showing that he’s improved his standing among Black voters, particularly younger men. As with all elections, turnout will be key with Democrats hoping for high turnout from urban and suburban counties such as Fulton, Fayette and Gwinnett, while Republicans will be looking to get every possible vote out of more rural counties in the northwest and southwest regions of the state. One wild card will be turnout among the storm-stricken portions of Georgia, which voted for Trump 57-43% in 2020.

Michigan (15 Electoral Votes).

One of the three Democratic “blue wall” states, MI has only voted for a Republican once in the past eight presidential elections (Trump’s 2016 win). Democrats have renewed their electoral success since and captured almost every state-wide office and won back the state legislatures, but there are warning signs for them on multiple fronts. For the first time in recent memory, multiple labor groups prominent in the state did not issue endorsements for either presidential candidate, a reflection of the increased support for Trump among their members. Additionally, it remains to be seen what type of support Harris will receive from Arab Americans, a notable voting bloc that traditionally has strongly supported the Democratic nominee. Michigan is to Harris what North Carolina is to Trump – a must-win state.

Nevada (6 Electoral Votes).

NV has voted Democratic at the presidential level for the past two decades, leading many to consider it a more reliable Democratic state. However, prior to 2008 it was the quintessential swing state for decades. This year has firmly brought the Silver State back into the swing state column largely due to a weaker economy (NV has the highest unemployment rate in the country), changing demographics and most importantly, a high population turnover with 25% of voters who didn’t live in the state for the 2020 presidential election. This turnover has led to Republicans closing the voter registration gap with Democrats, which now stands roughly even with 40% of voters registering as non-partisan. The state has an interesting dynamic where Republicans typically win all but two counties, Clark and Washoe. Democrats rely on building up a “firewall” of early votes from those two counties in order to balance out losses in the remainder. NV is another state that predominately votes early (75% of votes will be cast before November 5), and the first few days of early voting have looked more promising for Trump than Harris.

North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes).

NC is a perpetual white whale for Democrats, having been won by them at the presidential level only once (2008) in the past four decades. However, polls show a tight race with Harris at 48% and Trump at 49%. As with GA, NC has been heavily impacted by recent storms. The voting margins of the impacted areas are much closer in NC (51.6% for Trump and 48.4% for Biden in 2020), but as with everything, that could prove to be crucial in such a close race. Unlike so many other states, NC is expected to report the bulk of their results early during election night, which may provide our first look at how the overall race is shaping up. Winning NC is critical to Trump’s re-election efforts, and a Harris win would heavily increase her odds of winning the election.

Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes).

Featuring the largest individual haul of electoral votes, PA is the crown jewel that both campaigns have been desperately battling over. Seen as the most likely “tipping point” state by both candidates, they or their surrogates have been camped out in the Keystone State for months. PA alone will see over a billion dollars of ad spending and has the most campaign staff on the ground of any state. While PA will likely be crucial for determining who wins the presidency, keep in mind that election workers are unable to begin processing mail ballots until after polls close (8 PM EST), which means the state will be slow in reporting their final results. The odds are good that it will take a few days for us to know if PA is in fact the tipping point state, and who won.

Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes).

On paper, WI is Harris’ strongest state, consistently maintaining a lead in polls. However, it’s also the state that has had the hardest time accurately polling Trump in past elections. In 2016, Clinton was up 6.5% in polls while Trump ended up winning by 0.7%, and in 2020 Biden was up 6.7% and only ended up winning by 0.7%. In both cases, WI ended up being the tipping point state that delivered Trump and Biden their presidencies. In fact, the state has been decided by 1% or less in four out of the past six elections, a clear indication of the state’s swinging nature and diverse electorate. All eyes may be on PA as the deciding factor this year, but WI could also emerge to be that state.