3Q2024 Quarterly Sentiment Pulse Check
How are investors positioned ahead of earnings announcements?
Check out the US Sector Specialist team's outlook prior to earnings announcements across Consumer, Energy and Resources, Financials, Technology, Telco, Media and Internet, and Industrials and Materials sectors.
Check out the US Sector Specialist team's outlook prior to earnings announcements across Consumer, Energy and Resources, Financials, Technology, Telco, Media and Internet, and Industrials and Materials sectors.
Allyson Gordon, Industrials and Materials Sector Specialist
- Most investors anticipate 3Q results will not change the broader narrative with a focus more so on the trajectory into 2025 and the US election right around the corner
- From a positioning standpoint, investors continue to hide in high quality, thematic longs including Aero Aftermarket and AI derivative plays
- Investors have been much more focused on the short and underweight groups and whether or not it is time to go further out the risk curve
Kelsey Perselay, Telco, Media and Internet Sector Specialist
- Sentiment and positioning remain convoluted as investors battle the impact from China stimulus, Fed decisions, a falling rate backdrop, and geopolitical tensions
- Investors are choosing to stick with high quality longs within mega-cap tech and hesitant to go out on the risk curve
- Advertising budget growth accelerated through 3Q given the uplift from political, brand advertising recovery, and improved consumer sentiment with particular strength in auto and consumer packaged goods
Jason Finkelstein, Consumer Sector Specialist
- Sentiment remains broadly negative across Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples and both are significantly underperforming the S&P500 YTD
- Investors are still hiding in the large-cap momentum names within specific hotels, membership warehouse clubs, mass merchants and off-price retailers
- This quarter, positioning has shifted in restaurants from the large fast casual stocks to the largest quick-service restaurant players
Catherine Gordon, Energy and Resources Sector Specialist
- This quarter, key inbound investor questions have been: Will this geopolitical rally fade like the prior ones? What are the upside and downside drivers from current levels?
- In Utilities, Power names continue to generate the most interest from dedicated and generalist investors with stocks up 100-200% YTD
- Renewables remain out of favor but interest levels are starting to pick up again ahead of the US elections
Rob Ruple, Technology Sector Specialist
- Technology sector continues to climb with the S&P Tech Index closing in on new highs +32% YTD
- Many investors believe resilience remains predicated on the continued outperformance of select AI and Mag 7 companies
- The key theme in 2025 for Tech will be the successful AI 1.0 paradigm shift focused on training and proof of concept to an AI 2.0 paradigm shift focused on inference and use case implementation
Rob O’Dwyer, Financials Sector Specialist
- Investors are trying to understand how and when net interest income (NII) troughs in the context of a new rate regime from the Fed
- Valuations have become quite full for investment banks, exchanges, and info services names
- P&C insurance may be vulnerable to investors becoming more pro-cyclical from a positioning point of view
