Daily update
Daily update
- Polls immediately after the US presidential debate declared former President Trump the winner. While incumbents often “lose” debates, US President Biden reportedly lost by a large margin. This invites increased investor scrutiny of Trump’s policies, especially around trade. The economic consequences of tariffs are relatively obvious, but there is uncertainty about how many campaign pledges will translate into policy action.
- The cold economic realities offer US May consumer spending and income data, and the price deflator. While price data is the focus, consumer spending figures follow negative revisions within first quarter GDP. The monthly change in the consumer spending deflator should be benign, and the main concern about US inflation amongst economists is why Federal Reserve Chair Powell has seemingly not noticed rising real interest rates.
- Japan’s Tokyo area consumer price inflation rose slightly more than expected. While the headline rate has fallen more than two percentage points from the peak, recent increases keep the focus on Bank of Japan policy.
- France and Spain both offer preliminary June consumer price data (France’s figures perhaps overshadowed by fears over unfunded fiscal promises). The UK revised up its first quarter GDP by a small amount, but small changes in abstract ideas has little relevance to people living in the real world.
