Daily update
Daily update
- New York Federal Reserve President Williams—a genuine economist, who should thus be listened to —signaled that the Fed is happy with the state of the US economy and that two 25bp rate cuts this year would be appropriate. This clearer guidance for the future is a big improvement on Fed Chair Powell’s inept dependence on dodgy data.
- The US NFIB small business sentiment poll is due. This survey has been optimistic during Republican administrations and pessimistic during Democrat administrations, and the correlation is more likely political than economic. Vice-President Harris’s consistent modest lead in polls suggests an obstacle to optimism in today’s data. August trade data is due—of some relevance with talk of trade taxes flying around everywhere.
- The UK BRC store sales data for September were stronger than expected (the data include inflation, but goods prices have been in deflation for five months now). The UK consumer does not match the hedonism of the US consumer, but is giving solid support.
- China’s state planners stated they had confidence in the economy, which sounds a little like cheerleading. There were no details of fiscal support, and investors do not tend to think that monetary policy and the rustle of pom-poms alone are a sufficient remedy for China’s economic challenges.
