Daily update
Daily update
- Policy interests markets, but few voters. Emotion tends to be more important in elections. The global rise of economic nationalism is rooted in emotion, but is also a policy with real world consequences. Yesterday, former US President Trump pledged to use corporate tax cuts and consumer tax increases (via tariffs) to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. Who would do those jobs with near full employment was not specified. Investors have hitherto regarded Trump’s tariff proposals as being emotional rather than policy, given their extreme nature.
- The OECD publishes its interim economic outlook. This is more politics than economics—politicians use its projections to score points against their opponents. Whether voters care about OECD predictions for abstract, outdated concepts like GDP is debatable. The OECD does not necessarily have better insights about the economic future than market economists; markets will have priced in the ideas some time ago.
- The Swedish Riksbank meets today and is expected to cut rates. Markets paid attention when the Riksbank was first mover, but now it is just part of the crowd.
- US new home sales data is due. This is not a first tier data release for markets, but in the coming months should show some consequences of the US rate easing cycle.
