Daily update
Daily update
- US President Trump’s address to Congress echoed speeches at campaign rallies. Markets have limited interest in much of the content. Trump did suggest trade tariffs would create “a little disturbance”, which seems to suggest a commitment to keep taxing US consumers. However, there was a faint sound of retreat from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, who suggested that some of the tax burden may be lifted for consumers of Canadian and Mexican products as soon as today.
- Uncertainty is a management style, but there are consequences. Corporate investments and household savings are in part determined by certainty around expectations for the future. More visible taxes (e.g. an avocado tax or a propane tax) have the power to affect consumer behavior more quickly than less visible taxes (e.g. aluminum taxes).
- US January factory orders data is not a major market focus. Over time, it offers more important indications for investors. US companies can respond to import taxes by increasing profits (inflationary) or market share. Data around US production will hint at the route taken.
- Bank of England Governor Bailey and other officials testify to parliament today, offering informed policy makers’ views in an uncertain economic climate. Assorted business sentiment survey data are due—hard to read in a polarized world.
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