Future of Food Redux: Has COVID-19 stunted plant-based protein adoption?

In this report we explore whether COVID-19 has disrupted our expectation that plant-based proteins will experience a 30% sales CAGR through 2025 to $51bn globally. By and large, it hasn't: meat substitute volumes continued to outperform globally in 2020. The regional exception was North America, which was reflective of channel mix, since 64% of meat substitute volumes in 2019 (pre-pandemic) were derived from the subsequently disrupted foodservice channel, vs. just 33% globally. In US retail, meat alternatives continue to gain market share, but outperformance vs. traditional meat categories narrowed relative to before the pandemic. Plant-based alternatives were not the only product to see notable progress in 2020 either, as Singapore became the first country to approve the sale of lab-grown meat.

Findings across multiple UBS Evidence Lab datasets show consumer engagement continues to increase: 54% of consumers (in the US, UK and Germany) have now tried plant-based protein, with 47% now consuming it at least once a week – the highest reading since the survey series began. Instagram interactions also increased 28% in 2020, to 18.7m. This engagement is mirrored among corporates, with plant-based mentions in 2020 annual reports up by an average 32% for our ingredients company coverage, and 75% for a sample of food firms, versus 2019.