The 13th edition of UBS’s flagship OneASEAN Summit attracted over 900 investors, policymakers, and corporates, providing on-the-ground perspectives of the region.
Together with the Global Macro Forum, this year’s combined summit saw UBS experts and guest speakers discussing the global macroeconomic outlook, opportunities and risks that Southeast Asian economies face in 2025.
US trade policy and implications for ASEAN markets
US trade policy and implications for ASEAN markets
Economies of Southeast Asia seek to maintain momentum amidst the increasing geopolitical challenges and shifts. Discussions at the Global Macro Forum focused on how China and Southeast Asia policymakers navigate the uncertainties due to US tariff policies.
The spillovers from slower investments and weaker global trade could be a significantly larger drag on the ASEAN economies, instead of the bottom-up impact from varying reciprocal tariffs.
Rohit Arora, Asia Macro Strategist, UBS
Moderator on panel "US: Trade policy and implications".
Southeast Asia policy makers are deploying various policy tools to mitigate the downside risk to growth in response to US tariff policy.
There is also policy regime shift across many Southeast Asia central banks to ease monetary policies to boost growth.
ASEAN has been among China's top trading partners for five consecutive years and that relationship is growing driven by tariffs, cultural similarities, and policy support.
Robin Xu, Head of UBS Securities.
Speaker on panel “ASEAN’s position in the new world order”.
Navigating opportunities and challenges in ASEAN
Navigating opportunities and challenges in ASEAN
The conference highlighted a generally positive sentiment for the ASEAN region, with various sectors showing promising growth and potential. However, the discussions also underscored the need for ASEAN countries to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing emerging challenges, including potential tariffs and the need for inward investment.
The most defining variable affecting the region this year is the huge amount of uncertainty facing the region. While the base case is for a resilient economic growth, the tail risks both in terms of their likelihood and impact are not small.
Grace Lim, Senior ASEAN and Asia Economist, UBS.
Moderator on panels “ASEAN in the crosshairs” and “ASEAN’s position in the new world order”.
Key ASEAN highlights:
Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund’s investment strategies focus on sectors like commodities downstream and digital infrastructure, positioning it as an “agent of growth” for Indonesia. - Thailand's growth outlook has a K-shaped outlook, with attractive select opportunities
- The Johor-Singapore special economic zone has good potential in the long run, given Singapore’s edge in innovation and Malaysia’s land and labor resources
- The Southeast Asian travel industry is expected to boom, rising from a high single digit contribution to regional GDP to low double digits in the coming years. Demand for travel from ASEAN to China is increasing and airlines can also benefit from facilitating logistics of cross-border e-commerce growth from China into the region.
