Strategy, Economics
How will the US economy cope with (reduced) Trump Tariffs?
Recession, stagflation or much less? Jonathan Pingle tells us how growth, inflation and policy will be impacted by Trump’s tariffs.
Our UBS Economics and Strategy team discuss key themes:
Our UBS Economics and Strategy team discuss key themes:
- Is this the end of the great moderation?
- Are tariffs ideological or just a bargaining tool?
- How large is the GDP and domestic demand hit of tariffs as they stand?
- How will this impact trend growth in the US economy?
- The market believed AI is pushing productivity higher. Will deglobalisation compromise it?
- What impact will no trade with the third largest trading partner have on the US economy?
- Where does inflation go and how soon do we feel it?
- What does the Fed do?
- How much revenue will these tariffs yield and can this fund fiscal expansion? What is your estimate of the credit impulse over the coming 3 years?
- The stated aim of tariffs is to reorder global trade and bring back manufacturing to the US. Will this be successful?
Trump blinks, but the damage isn't all undone
Trump blinks, but the damage isn't all undone