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理論上，科技是經濟增長的強大引擎。它讓我們更快、更好、更便宜地生產作業。但隨著科技近年的迅速轉變，也浮現事情的另一面。顛覆性的科技會如何影響工作、技能與工資？誰會從新科技中受益，誰會被拋下？諾貝爾經濟學獎得主與你探討未來工作以及人工智能、自動化及機械人技術對全球經濟的影響。
We expect politics to play an outsize role in 2024. The US presidential election, the ongoing Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars, and the rivalry between the US and China could all affect markets globally. Investors should prepare for bouts of politically driven volatility and consider hedges.
A new normal is coming into view for China. Constraints on old growth drivers and a new focus on higher-quality growth will likely temper its GDP growth toward a 4–4.5% pace over the next decade. For investors, this means a greater long-term focus on sectors aligned with the country’s efforts to boost its tech self-sufficiency, localize mass consumption, upgrade its high tech and industrial sectors, and lead the global green transition.
Generative artificial intelligence isn’t a new concept—the broad idea has been around since the 1960s, and the transformer architecture that makes it more effective was detailed in 2017. But the launch of ChatGPT has shown its potential impact when combined with a platform with strong consumer adoption. Currently, we see AI-related opportunities across a range of software, internet, and semiconductor stocks.
We expect central banks to commence rate-cutting cycles in 2024. In our view, government bond markets are overpricing the risk that high interest rates will represent the new normal, and we expect yields to fall in 2024.
Debt is likely to continue to rise, fixed income volatility is likely to be higher in the decade ahead, and we think it unlikely that rates and yields will return to pandemic-era lows. But we do not believe that rates or yields are now in a structural uptrend. Debt, demographic, and productivity trends, along with a gradual restoration of central bank credibility, mean we expect rates and yields to settle at lower levels than today’s.
