Year Ahead 2025

Roaring 20s: The next stage

Roaring 20s: The next stage

Mark Haefele portrait

Mark Haefele
Chief Investment Officer
Global Wealth Management

Introduction

Since the start of the 2020s, global equity markets are up by around 50%, US nominal GDP has increased by over 30%, and US corporate profits are up nearly 70%. All that in spite of unprecedented global lockdowns, the outbreak of wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and the largest spike in interest rates and inflation in decades.

The market and economic developments have led some to term the decade so far as the “Roaring 20s,” marked by high economic growth, strong market returns, and improving productivity.

We are now approaching the midpoint of the decade, and the implications of the US election result are a focal point. A key question is whether US political change might extend or end the Roaring 20s.

The upside scenario would see lower taxes, deregulation, and trade deals adding to a positive market narrative built on solid growth and continued investment in artificial intelligence. The risk scenario is that trade tariffs, excessive fiscal deficits, and geopolitical strife will contribute to higher inflation, weaker growth, and market volatility.

As we consider a wider range of market outcomes ahead, the unpredictability of this decade so far should remind us of the importance of humility and market diversification. But it should also remind us of the adaptability of the economy, the power of innovation, and the potential for long-term market growth.

In Year Ahead 2025, we highlight the investment opportunities and strategies to help investors capture opportunities and manage risks as the decade enters its next stage. 

Mark Haefele portrait

Solita Marcelli
Chief Investment Officer Americas
Global Wealth Management

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      2024 in review

      Growth icon

      Growth

      We anticipated a deceleration in growth for 2024, but expected the economy to avoid a recession. Growth exceeded expectations. Developed economies are on track to grow by 1.7% in 2024 versus our estimate of 1.1%, with US economic outperformance a key driver. Emerging market growth also looks set to modestly exceed our forecasts (4.4% versus 3.9% expected).

      inflation and rates icon

      Inflation and rates

      Inflation fell more slowly in 2024 than in 2023, but continued to move down toward central bank targets. We anticipated 50 basis points of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024. The Fed has already cut rates by 75bps, and we think another 25bp rate cut is possible before the end of 2024.

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      Bonds

      We projected positive returns from quality bonds and forecast that the 10-year US yield would fall to 3.5% by the end of 2024. By September 2024, yields had fallen to 3.6%. But stronger economic growth data and anticipation of higher inflation under a new US administration supported yields later in the year, pushing them up to 4.4% at the time of writing. Investment grade bonds have returned near 3% year-to-date.

      Equities icon

      Equities

      We expected positive returns for stocks in 2024 and advocated a focus on quality companies, including those in the technology sector. Returns exceeded our expectations, with the MSCI AC World index delivering a 15.9% year-to-date price gain in US dollars. The MSCI AC World Quality and MSCI AC World Technology indices are up by 18% and 27.3%, respectively, this year.

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      Currencies

      Our message in currencies last year was to “trade the range.” We expected EURUSD to trade between 1.00 and 1.12 and USDCHF to trade between 0.85 and 0.94. Those ranges have held through the year, with EURUSD currently trading near the middle of this range, close to where it was 12 months ago.

      Commodities icon

      Commodities

      We expected gold to break new record highs, forecasting it to rise to USD 2,150/oz (from USD 1,950/oz at the time of writing). It overshot our initial expectations, closing as high as USD 2,790/oz in October. Oil helped hedge geopolitical risks in the first half of the year but ultimately fell short of our expectations of USD 90-100/bbl, with Brent crude trading at USD 71/bbl at the time of writing.

      Topics in this report

      Moving subway car

      Economic outlook

      Year Ahead
      

      In our base case, we expect sustained economic growth in the US, supported by healthy consumption, loose fiscal policy, and lower interest rates. Tariff threats are a headwind for Asia and Europe. If imposed, they could be partially offset by reactive stimulus measures in China. We expect growth in Europe to modestly improve as interest rates fall.

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      What will President Trump mean for markets?

      Year Ahead
      

      A Trump presidency, coupled with Republican control of Congress, has the potential to reshape the global economic and geopolitical landscape. Key policy areas in focus for investors include tariffs, fiscal policy, deregulation, monetary policy, and international relations.

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      The 5Ds

      Decade Ahead
      

      The 5Ds—debt, deglobalization, demographics, decarbonization, and digitalization—will be significant forces in the decade ahead that present opportunities and risks for investors. In aggregate, we expect them to lead to higher growth and periods of higher inflation over the long term.

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      Asset class expectations

      Decade Ahead
      

      Since the beginning of the decade, cash returns have struggled to surpass inflation and bonds have faced headwinds from rising interest rates. In contrast, equities have thrived, and private markets and commodities have offered robust returns. Looking ahead, we expect equities and private markets to continue to offer the highest potential returns.

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      Lock in yields

      Top investment ideas
      

      We believe that high grade and investment grade bonds offer compelling risk-reward, and we expect mid-to-high single digit returns for medium duration bonds in US dollar terms over the next 12 months. We also believe investors should pursue means of diversifying and boosting portfolio income, including through diversified fixed income strategies, senior loans and private credit, and through equity income strategies. In relative value, we like UK gilts relative to French OATs.

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      More to go in stocks

      Top investment ideas
      

      We expect the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 by the end of 2025, 10% higher than current levels. The potential imposition of tariffs could lead to volatility in the short term, but we believe that strong US economic growth and structural tailwinds from AI should be supportive. We also see value in maintaining diversified exposure to Asia ex-Japan. In Europe, we like EMU small- and mid-cap stocks and Swiss high-quality dividend stocks.

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      Transformational innovation opportunities

      Top investment ideas
      

      We expect significant and sustained profit growth in the transformational innovation opportunities of (1) Artificial intelligence and (2) Power and resources. By investing in these areas, we believe investors can earn strong long-term returns.

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      Harvest currency volatility

      Top investment ideas
      

      Higher volatility in currency markets provides the opportunity to boost portfolio income and earn additional yields in exchange for agreeing to make currency conversions at specific prices. Over the next 1-3 months, we like picking up yield by selling the upside in EURUSD and downside in USDCHF. Over the next six months, we like selling upside in CHFJPY, EURGBP, and EURAUD, and downside in GBPUSD, GBPCHF, and AUDUSD. While the US dollar may remain well bid in the near term, we expect modest weakness over the balance of 2025. Meanwhile, we believe yen and pound weakness may be approaching their limits.

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      Navigate political risks

      Top investment ideas
      

      As President Trump assumes office, investors should prepare for volatility and potential policy surprises, particularly with respect to trade policy, and should consider portfolio diversification and hedging approaches. In equities, capital preservation strategies can help manage downside risks. Investors should manage allocations to long duration bonds carefully, given fiscal risks. We think long USDCNY could be an effective hedge against trade risks, while oil prices could move higher if pressure on Iran is stepped up. We also continue to see gold as an effective hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks.

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      Go for gold

      Top investment ideas
      

      We expect gold to resume its rally in 2025. We expect the trend of central bank reserve asset diversification to continue, while geopolitical risks, government debt concerns, and inflation uncertainty are contributing to robust investor demand. We expect prices to rise to USD 2,850/oz by the end of the year. We also expect upside for silver prices in 2025.

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      Time for real estate

      Top investment ideas
      

      We believe the outlook for global residential and commercial real estate investments is bright. With constrained supply and rising demand, we see opportunities in sectors such as logistics, data centers, and multifamily housing. Investors should focus on quality assets and strategic diversification to capitalize on these favorable market dynamics. 

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      How to plan ahead

      Top investment ideas
      

      Developing a strategic plan that links goals with strategies can improve investors’ chance of success and help them stay focused on the bigger picture amid potential market turbulence.

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      Forecasts

      Forecasts
      

      We aim to provide the direction of travel for the economy and asset classes against a wide range of market outcomes ahead. The upside scenario would see lower taxes, deregulation, and trade deals adding to a positive market narrative built on solid growth and continued investment in artificial intelligence, while the risk scenario is that trade tariffs, excessive fiscal deficits, and geopolitical strife will contrib­ute to higher inflation, weaker growth, and market volatility.

      Mockup of Year Ahead 2025 publication

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      In this Year Ahead, we look at key developments that we believe will shape the next stage of these “Roaring 20s,” including US political change, falling interest rates, and transformational innovation in artificial intelligence and in power and resources.

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      Disclaimers

      Year Ahead 2025 – UBS House View
      Chief Investment Office GWM  |  Investment Research

      This report has been prepared by UBS AG, UBS AG London Branch, UBS Switzerland AG, UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS), UBS AG Singapore Branch, UBS AG Hong Kong Branch, and UBS SuMi TRUST Wealth Management Co., Ltd.