Content:

  • Review: Residential property became much more expensive in the final quarter of 2025 Year-over-year home prices rose by 4.1%.
  • The Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index: The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index increased significantly but continues to indicate a moderate bubble risk in owner-occupied housing.
  • Risk map: The analysis shows a remaining bubble risk in the tourist regions of Graubünden.
  • Outlook: The prices of residential properties are likely to increase by 3% in 2026.
The price development on the real estate market is expected to stabilize at a high level in the coming months.

Development of real estate prices in Switzerland

Residential property became much more expensive in the final quarter of 2025 Year-over-year home prices rose by 4.1%, while consumer prices stagnated.

The increase in rents on the rental housing market has slowed considerably. Asking rents are currently still 1.2% up on the previous year. The momentum of existing rents has also slowed, rising by 1.4% within a year.

 

UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index in the 4th quarter of 2025: moderate

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index rose from 0.27 to 0.48 index points. This was the strongest quarterly increase since 1989. The risk of a real estate bubble is still classified as moderate.

What is the UBS Real Estate Bubble Index and how is it calculated?

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index shows the risk of a real estate bubble – a significant overvaluation of real estate and the likelihood of an imminent price drop – on the Swiss real estate market. UBS economists use a model with different subindices to calculate the bubble index: 

  • price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios (foundation)
  • real rate of price change over three and 10 years (dynamics)
  • cost comparison of purchase and rent (cost)
  • mortgage volume-to-income and residential construction (environment)

Depending on the current index value, the real estate bubble risk is divided into the following four categories:

  • low (below 0)
  • moderate (between 0 and 1)
  • elevated (between 1 and 2)
  • acute (above 2)

The graph shows the risk of a real estate bubble over the last 40 years. In 2025, the Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index is stated between 0 and 1, which corresponds to the assessment of moderate.

Download our detailed analysis now

The more you know, the more you understand: you’ll find our complete analysis of the Swiss housing market in the latest issue of the Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index.

The risk map shows in which municipalities the real estate market is at risk of overheating

The map shows price developments over the last five years for all 106 Swiss economic regions, as well as an indication of regional risk based on the development of the price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios.

  • Significant imbalances exist almost exclusively in the tourist regions of Graubünden, a consequence of the second-home boom and limited supply.
  • In Western Switzerland, imbalances around Lake Geneva have increased. In the Geneva region, however, there is still no elevated imbalance, owing to recently belowaverage price growth. The regions of Yverdon and Pays d’Enhaut also show high imbalances.
  • In the primary residence markets of German-speaking Switzerland, in addition to the Einsiedeln region, we now also observe high imbalances in the city of Zurich and in Nidwalden.
Real estate prices in different regions in Switzerland are compared with rental prices. The resulting map shows which regions are at risk of a real estate bubble.
Source: UBS. Imbalances: very high: change in the price-income and price-rent ratios greater than in 90 percent of the regions. High: change in the price-income and price-rent ratios greater than in 75 percent of the regions.

What is the forecast for the development of the real estate market in Switzerland?

Despite attractive financing conditions, a slowdown in home price increases is expected in the coming quarters. Economic growth in Switzerland is at risk of losing further momentum. Rising uncertainty regarding jobs and incomes is likely to negatively impact demand for homeownership. For the years 2026 and 2027, we anticipate a slight slowdown in price increases to 2 to 3 percent due to the strained affordability of homeownership. However, not all regions are likely to benefit equally from value gains.

Regional price outlook

The best conditions for above-average price increases - measured by local demand surplus, momentum, and relative price level in the residential property market - are found in Upper Valais, the Bernese Oberland, Chur, Lucerne, and Schaffhausen. Our analyses indicate below-average price development around Lake Geneva, along the Jura Arc, and in Northwestern Switzerland.

Map of regions with the highest and lowest expected future prices.
Source: UBS. Regions with the highest and lowest expected future price development.

The facts about your preferred municipality

Do you want to understand how property prices or population levels have changed in a municipality? Or how the location is perceived in general? How high are taxes? The UBS municipality guide is free of charge and answers all your questions.

FAQ real estate prices and real estate market

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